Searles Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

000
FXUS65 KVEF 022139
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
245 PM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
possible through midweek as sufficient moisture and instability
remain in the area. Precipitation totals should be light and most
activity will take place over high terrain. The area slowly dries
out and temperatures begin to climb as a ridge builds later this
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The upper low that helped draw in tropical moisture has shifted off
to the east leaving behind plenty of low level moisture. Dew points
across the region are currently in the 40s and 50s, which is very
unusual for June. So far today, showers and thunderstorms have been
firing along the Sierra and White Mountains of Inyo County and
across portions of northern Lincoln and central Nye counties. These
areas are currently seeing the greatest instability with CAPE values
in the 500-1000 j/kg along with LIs ranging from 0/-2 deg C. Storms
over the Sierra and White Mountains will gradually decrease this
evening with loss of daytime heating, but the storms over Lincoln
County have the potential of maintaining and expanding this
afternoon and evening as they move south. Those storms will be
moving into areas that are seeing increasing instability as the
earlier cloud cover continues to erode. Along with the increasing
instability, high dew points and high PWs will lead to some storms
producing brief heavy rain and minor flooding concerns. We did get a
spotter report of small hail near Eagle Valley in Lincoln County as
the storm went overhead. While most of the thunderstorm activity is
expected to remain in Utah, areas of southern Lincoln, northeast
Clark, and northern Mohave counties could see some stronger storms as
we go through the afternoon and into the evening. We could also see
some gusty outflow winds as DCAPEs in the area are around 1000 j/kg
and it is possible that some of those winds could make it into the
Las Vegas Valley. Storms will gradually diminish late tonight.

Storms Tuesday are expected to be more favored over the southern
half of the CWA as deep moisture remains in place. PWs will still be
around 200-300 percent of normal which translates to around 1.00" -
1.50" inches. With plenty of morning sunshine this should translate
to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as
conditions will remain rather unstable. Most of these storms will
favor the higher terrain, but some valley locations could see a
storm or two. Flash flooding could be more of a concern as winds
aloft remain around 10 kts or less.

On Wednesday, another low off the southern California coast will
begin to shift inland. This low will take a very similar path to the
previous low and although there isn`t a significant amount of
tropical moisture available, the latest models indicate increasing
PWs and surface dew points once again. This will lead to more
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southern half of the
CWA. Again, these will likely be favored over the higher terrain,
but any storms could produce heavy rain. WPC has added our eastern
counties, including Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave into a marginal
Excessive Rain Outlook.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

Weak northwest flow will continue across the region late in the
week.  A series of weak short waves will move through the flow and
interact with lingering moisture, resulting in slight PoPs through
early Friday.  The best chances will be over the southern Great
Basin and Arizona Strip.  The remaining moisture should move east of
the area by Friday afternoon, bringing an end to the precipitation
chances. Despite the shortwaves, a high-pressure ridge building over
the eastern Pacific and northern Mexico will result in increased 500
mb heights across the Desert Southwest. As such, temperatures will
climb back to 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal norms heading into the
weekend, and temperatures approaching 10 degrees above normal
heading into next week. This will result in desert valleys
experiencing high temperatures in the 100s once again, and
widespread "Moderate" Heat Risk from Sunday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Most likely, the terminals will see light winds favoring
the east early that become south to southeast at 8-10KT around 21Z
today, then becoming diurnal after sunset. There is a low chance
that a push of northeast winds moves through the valley around 06Z-
if this did occur, northeast winds would likely gust over 20KT
between 06Z-09Z before diminishing for the rest of the night. On
Tuesday, south to southeast winds will develop again and should be
similar to what occurs today. A few thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon in the nearby mountains to the north and west, but in
general not expecting convection or thunderstorm impacts today.
There is a better chance, about 30%, for nearby thunderstorms to
develop in and around the valley on Tuesday after 20Z which could
produce lightning, sudden gusty erratic winds, moderate to heavy
rain, and CIGs below 8000ft

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light rain currently in
Mohave County will diminish in the next hour or so. Convection this
afternoon will favor the terrain of Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave
counties as well as in the Sierra. Any thunderstorms today could
produce lightning, CIGs to 5000ft, brief heavy rain, and sudden
gusty winds. The highest threat of outflow winds will be in the
Sierra, including at KBIH where southeast winds could be interrupted
by west to southwest outflow winds between 21Z and 03Z. THe highest
threat for heavy rain and 5000ft CIGS will be in Clark and Mohave
counties. Low confidence that a complex of thunderstorms in
southwest Utah will push an outflow through northeast Clark and
northern Mohave after 00Z tonight with gusts over 30KT possible.
Outside of convection, south to southwest winds around 10 KT will
develop across the region this afternoon. Light winds return tonight
before similar winds return late Tuesday morning and afternoon.
Additional convection may develop Tuesday afternoon along and south
of the I-15 as well as in the Sierra.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Planz
AVIATION...Nickerson

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